Carbon credits: the opportunity for Paraguay and Latin America

≈ 3 min read · updated Jul 2026

Brazil has its regulated-market law in force since 2024, Colombia and Chile tax carbon and accept credits as payment, and Law 7190 positions Paraguay as the seller. We propose a model that compares candidates by MRV cost, volume and standard: which to certify first.

Process · measurement, reporting and verification
From project to credit: the cycle that repeats
How to read it: the credit isn't issued once. Each period requires measuring, reporting and verifying again
Project forest · energy · methane Baseline what happens without it Approved methodology Verra · Gold Standard · Art. 6 the decision: which standard, which market Monitoring sensors · satellite · records Report the number, documented Verification third-party auditor ★ Credit issued in the registry 1 credit = 1 verified tonne of CO₂e and the cycle starts again, every period, with its MRV cost
Recurring MRV cycle Initial structuring External audit repeats every period
  • Additionality
  • Integer programming · MRV portfolio
  • Verra · GS · Article 6 (Singapore 2025)
In short: the asset is the tonne that's measured, reported and verified by a third party, not the forest or the plant. The diagram simplifies: the timelines and costs of each cycle depend on the standard and the methodology that fits your project. The buyer can be a voluntary private party, a taxpayer in Colombia or Chile, or a state via Article 6.

Law 7190/2023 creates Paraguay’s carbon credit framework: every credit requires a baseline, a monitoring plan and recurring cycles of measurement, reporting and verification (MRV). That cycle comes back every verification period: the cost almost nobody budgets for when they look at the credit price.

Two clocks and one map: Law 7190 across Latin America

The full cycle is in the diagram above: MADES runs the national registry, additionality (proving the reduction would not have happened on its own) filters eligibility from the first project and the standards decide which methodology qualifies.

Since January 2026 the CBAM requires the European importer to declare the embedded emissions of what it buys in cement, iron and steel, aluminum, fertilizers, hydrogen and electricity. If you export into that chain, your buyer will demand your product’s measured footprint.

Seen through a PESTEL lens, the regional map fits in a single chart; the politics runs through another channel and comes right after:

Carbon credits · regional comparison
Five countries, three dimensions: the PESTEL map of carbon in the region
How to read it: each row is a country and each column a PESTEL dimension, with the law, the price and what qualifies · green in force today, amber in implementation, violet Paraguay's card · on the right, each country's role as of 2026
Legal framework in force Economic price signal Ecological what qualifies Role on the regional map · 2026 Paraguay Law 7190/2023 registry at MADES no tax and no cap: MRV cost rules forestry, methane, energy if additionality clears sells: the standard and MRV cost decide here Brazil Law 15,042/2024 creates the SBCE reporting from 10,000 tCO₂e a year cap and trade for large emitters market for its own emitters; primary agriculture stays out Colombia Law 1819/2016 carbon tax COP 27,399 per tCO₂e (DIAN, 2025) non-accrual: the tax is payable with credits buys: accepts verified credits as tax payment Chile Law 20.780/2014 green tax US$ 5 per tCO₂ offsettable since 2023 (Law 21.210) buys: offsets its tax with certified credits Mexico carbon excise (2014) plus emissions trading cap and trade since 2020 (SEMARNAT) the cap declines over time, per national goal domestic market with a declining cap
Green: in force today Amber: in implementation Violet: Paraguay's card
  • Qualitative traffic light · 2026
  • Paraguay: Law 7190/2023
  • Brazil: Law 15,042/2024
  • Colombia: Law 1819/2016 · DIAN 2025
  • Chile: Laws 20.780 and 21.210
  • Mexico: SEMARNAT
All three dimensions read in the present tense: every framework is in force today and every price carries source and year. Qualitative traffic light built on the laws cited in the text; it compares no volumes or yields: the certification order would come from the model we propose, built with each project's data.

The politics runs through Article 6 of the Paris Agreement: Paraguay holds, since May 2025, its first implementation agreement with Singapore, which is also Singapore’s first with a Latin American country; Peru and Chile already operate agreements with that same buyer (Presidency of Paraguay, 2025).

The opportunity grows with every new green cell on the map: every instrument in force adds demand for verified credits, and of the five on the board Paraguay is the only one stepping in to sell them.

What to certify first

If you have more than one candidate, the order matters as much as eligibility: certifying the wrong one first eats the MRV budget your best project needed. The model we propose returns that decision before you spend anything on certification.

The data: your candidate inventory with expected tCO₂e volume, MRV costs quoted per standard and stage, your available budget and public price ranges per credit type, each with source and date.

The technique: integer linear programming, a knapsack-type model that picks the mix of projects that maximizes expected value within the MRV budget, then tests it against price scenarios.

The decision: which project to certify now, which to hold for the next cycle and which to drop, with the cost of changing the order in plain sight.

Illustrative example with three candidates; the real order would come from your data:

Suggested orderCandidateMethodology fitMRV costExpected volume
1stBiogas / methanehighmediummedium
2ndForestry / ARRhighhighhigh
3rdEnergy efficiencymediummediumlow

Our role

We propose building that comparator model with your data: MRV cost, volume and standard for each candidate. Once the project is chosen, we support it through to verification readiness before MADES and the applicable standard. The first step is an eligibility diagnosis.

How to measure it: set the baseline and the MRV monitoring plan from day one. Without that measurement there is no credit to sell.

This analysis is published to be argued with: if you read the regional map or the certification order differently, if you have a project that Law 7190 or the CBAM already reaches, or if you hold real verification quotes that would sharpen the proposed model, write to us and we will put it up against the real cost of MRV.

Find out if your project qualifies →

Initial diagnosis at no cost · we reply within 24 business hours